Another storm season has arrived. And while expected El Niño conditions could bring fewer Atlantic hurricanes than other years, it only takes one to cause serious problems for places like the Florida Keys.
Emergency management and weather officials are ready to respond should a storm threaten the island chain. At the National Weather Service Key West, warning coordination meteorologist Jon Rizzo has been monitoring conditions heading into hurricane season, which officially starts June 1. He said El Niño conditions will likely emerge this summer and persist through the end of the year.
“El Niño conditions contribute to fewer Atlantic hurricanes,” Rizzo said. “It limits the ability of the warm moist air to rise, condense and concentrate into sustained thunderstorm clusters.”
But Rizzo notes that 1992 was an El Niño year. The first named storm that year was Andrew, the Category 5 hurricane that made landfall in south Florida and affected the Upper Keys. The forces of Andrew resulted in 15 deaths and up to a quarter million people left temporarily homeless. An additional 25 lives were lost in Dade County from the indirect effects of Andrew.
“Even some stronger El Niño patterns still have resulted in hurricane or tropical storm impacts in South Florida and Keys. This is why we prepare every year,” Rizzo said.
With each passing year, track forecasts are better at pinpointing the path of a storm, and where it could potentially make landfall. Rizzo said that’s all thanks to hurricane modeling and data collection, including observations from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft and weather balloons, radar systems and satellites.
“Better real-time observations and storm modeling are also allowing the human specialists at the National Hurricane Center to improve intensity forecasts, explicitly identifying rapid intensification (an increase in wind speed within a tropical storm or hurricane of at least 35 mph in 24 hours’ time),” he said.
Forecasts delivered by Rizzo ahead of a threatening storm help Florida Keys emergency management officials determine what actions, if any, need to be taken for the safety of visitors and residents.
“When we do call for mandatory evacuations, we do so knowing we have good information from the National Weather Service,” said Cory Schwisow, county emergency management director. “It’s important for residents to heed the messages we’re putting out.”
If a storm threatens the area, Rizzo said, storm veterans should check in with their new friends and neighbors. Help point them in the right direction on where to stock up on hurricane supplies. Share things to keep in mind as they take a first look at protecting their home or business, and check again soon after a storm passes to ensure they don’t have immediate unmet needs.
“This is how the Florida Keys make it through hurricane season – together,” Rizzo said.
Residents should visit trusted sources, like nhc.noaa.gov, for weather information during hurricane season.
