Every day, the stats roll in: “Since Friday (12/4/2020), 89 cases have been added to Monroe County, including 34 in Key West, 16 in Key Largo, 14 in Marathon …”
The Monroe County Health Department has added an introductory paragraph to the COVID-19 positive cases it reports each weekday. On Mondays, it reports a three-day tally — Saturday, Sunday and Monday — like the one above.
It’s human nature to look at the numbers in a parochial way: “Oh, Key West’s numbers are twice as high as Marathon’s, therefore I am safe in Marathon.” That is incorrect. While the simple numbers are a good starting point for data, it doesn’t tell the whole story, without including population data.
According to the U.S. Census, Key West has about 24,000 residents, Key Largo about half that with approximately 10,500 residents, and Marathon about 8,500 residents. So while, yes, Key West has the most cases reported on Dec. 7 with 34, Marathon’s infection rate for that day, with 16 counted, actually represents a larger percentage of Marathon’s population testing positive than Key West’s. So for that DAY, Key West’s percentage of positive residents was 0.14%, Marathon’s was 0.16% and Key Largo’s was 0.15%
Many times, national and state news reports talk about COVID-19 cases per capita, or per 100,000. For example, earlier this week Florida published its per capita rate of COVID-19 infections to date at 5,127 per 100,000; roughly 1 million out of 20 million Floridians have tested positive for COVID-19 since the state began keeping track at the beginning of the pandemic.
The Keys’ snapshot from Dec. 3, a one-day tally, tells a different story about infection rates in Monroe County. On that day, the Health Department reported 37 new cases in Key West, 7 cases in Marathon and 2 cases in Key Largo. Calculated by population (as described above), Key West had a rate of 148 positive patients per 100,000 population, Marathon had 84 positive patients per 100,000, and Key Largo just 20 per 100,000.
Health experts say the best rough calculation of how many residents in your area are positive with COVID-19 is to count the rise in cases over a two-week period, the same period medical experts say patients are actively sick or contagious. On Nov. 23, there were 3,140 cases reported since the beginning of the count. Two weeks later, on Dec. 7, there were 3,604. That means that there are about 464 Monroe County residents who are actively carrying the virus. Again, that’s a rough estimate.
According to the most recent COVID-19 reports from the county health department, the Keys has a positive test rate of 9.53% over the past two weeks and the median age of the person infected is 41.
Wear a mask. Wash your hands. Stay six feet away.
LKMC says some employees affected
Lower Keys Medical Center said the increase in COVID-19 cases in the Keys is affecting the hospital too.
“Community spread is the most common way people, including our employees, are becoming exposed. We have had some out in quarantine or in self-isolation in accordance with CDC guidelines,” said LKMC’s David Clay. “This has not impacted our ability to care for patients. Our hospital remains prepared to care for patients needing medical care, whether for COVID-19 or other medical conditions.”
Clay said staff are following CDC guidelines — wearing personal protective equipment while caring for patients, including medical masks, face shields and gowns.
“We are extremely proud of the many ways our staff and physicians have risen to the challenges presented by COVID-19. They continue to work tirelessly to care for our patients, each other, and our community. Each of them deserves our endless gratitude.”
Patient visitation at LKMC is restricted at this time.
Shannon Weiner, county emergency management director, said the county emergency management team continues to reach out weekly to hospitals. Supplies, staffing and readiness rates are all in the green, she said.
“The hospitals are feeling very comfortable with where they are,” Weiner said. The same for our first responders. I spoke to them as well and they feel pretty good where they are readiness wise.
