STORM UPDATE: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY; STORM SURGE IS A CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY

September 26, 2022

a satellite image of a tropical cyclone — As of 8 a.m. Monday,, the center of Hurricane Ian was about 275 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. This position is also about: 460 miles SSW of Key Largo, 420 miles S of Marathon and 405 miles S of Key West.

The Florida Keys are bracing for tropical storm conditions and severe squalls from Hurricane Ian starting Tuesday afternoon, with storm surge becoming a concern for Wednesday, after the rain and wind conditions are beyond the Florida Keys.

Decisions about closing schools and county offices Tuesday will be made this afternoon during the 3 p.m. countywide coordination call. County Administrator Roman Gastesi and School Superintendent Theresa Axford both said they are “strongly considering” closures for tomorrow, but will make a final decision this afternoon. Gastesi said they’re also waiting to make any decisions about Wednesday.

Current high water on roadways and covering docks in some parts of the Upper Keys are NOT storm related, said Jon Rizzo, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service.

Key West and the Lower Keys are currently under a tropical storm warning, and a tropical storm watch will likely be issued for the Middle Keys following Monday’s 11 a.m. forecast update, said Rizzo.

He again briefed more than 200 Florida Keys officials on Monday morning, and emphasized his concern for potential storm surge flooding AFTER the worst of the wind and rain has passed.

“I’m worried that after the storm goes by is when we’ll see our highest storm surge water,” Rizzo said, advising residents in the Lower Keys such as Sugarloaf Key to be prepared for 3 feet of water above high tide and 1 to 2 feet above high tide in Key West.

“Maximum surge water could be about 2 feet above a bad king tide,” Rizzo added.

“It’s also possible that we’ll have impassable roads in the Upper Keys as well,” Rizzo said.

Hurricane Ian is forecast to turn toward the north-northwest today, followed by a northward motion Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. Ian is expected to pass near or over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday.

Shannon Weiner, Monroe County’s director of emergency management, said liveaboard boat residents are advised to seek shelter on shore with friends and family, but no general population shelters are being opened as of Monday morning, Weiner said.

Key West officials have repeatedly expressed concern during the calls about the city’s homeless residents of the Keys Overnight Temporary Shelter (KOTS) and liveaboard residents.

Ian is expected to become a major hurricane tonight and as of 8 a.m. Monday was 405 miles south of Key West. It is still expected to pass well west of the Florida Keys. Its eyewall, once fully formed, also will pass west of the Dry Tortugas, said Rizzo.

The most likely time of arrival of Tropical Storm Force winds would be early afternoon Tuesday for the Lower Keys & Key West. But remember, the most-likely arrival time may fluctuate earlier and later with every new advisory. Have your preparations complete by late Monday evening.

Key West City Hall offices will be closed tomorrow. The KOTS shelter is closing at 5 p.m. today. The port of Key West will be closed at 10 p.m. today, and the cruise ship currently in port will be gone by 6 p.m. today, said Dave Ambos of the U.S. Coast Guard.

Lower Keys Medical Center is rescheduling all of tomorrow’s elective procedures. The Bahia Honda State Park campground is closed.

Airports remain fully operational as of Monday morning.

In Islamorada, village hall and Founders Park will close to the public on Tuesday. The marina at Founders Park will remain open until 2 p.m. on Tuesday. Freebee ride services will continue normal operations.