In a prelude to what promises to be the most pivotal item for the Florida Keys during the 2025 state legislative session, the Monroe County Commission will move toward a request to top state officials for at least 220 new building allocations in 2025.
Decided by the commission at its Oct. 16 meeting as one of the first significant votes shaping the future of development throughout the island chain, the 220-unit request reflects the maximum number of new building allocations that would still allow the county to maintain the pivotal 24-hour evacuation time for current Keys residents required by state law. Extra allocations beyond this number, county leaders said, still need a closer look.
Emily Schemper, senior director of planning, told the board that according to county staff’s most recent analysis, 1,618 buildable lots without a permit remain throughout unincorporated Monroe, further reduced to 1,298 once the county exhausts its current stock of building allocations. When added to 539 similar lots in Marathon and 196 in Islamorada, the county in total could have roughly 2,033 properties that could form the basis for regulatory takings cases, triggered if a property owner with a reasonable expectation of building on said property is denied that opportunity.
Under a microscope as an Area of Critical State Concern, the Keys are required to maintain an evacuation time of 24 hours for all permanent residents in the event of a Category 2 hurricane or stronger, with tourists, mobile homes designated early-evacuation buildings and other special groups evacuating either 36 or 48 hours before a storm’s arrival.
And although adding the 220 units from the state – roughly 100 for the county, and 40 each for Marathon, Islamorada and Key West – would still allow for a 24-hour evacuation, Schemper said that adding a residential unit for each buildable lot throughout the Keys would require a statutory change, as the addition would likely push the evacuation time to somewhere between 24.5 and 26 hours according to the modeling used by the state.
County emergency management director Shannon Weiner called the evacuations a “flexible situation” adaptable to each storm, adding that the Transportation Interface Modeling Evacuation (TIME) model used by emergency management officials in the Keys differs slightly from the state model that informs land planning decisions. Assuming a historical 73% evacuation participation rate and traffic data, she said the TIME model currently estimates a 28-hour evacuation for permanent residents, while 100% participation would push this number to 32 hours.
Use of the U.S. 1 shoulder or converting both sides of the highway to a one-way traffic pattern, though floated as possibilities in the past, were not considered safe or practical options to decrease evacuation times, she said.
Addressing the commission following months of online surveys and public outreach and input sessions, senior strategic planning director Kimberly Matthews said respondents to online surveys listed housing costs as the top reason they would potentially leave the Keys, with more than 40% saying housing costs consume 30 to 50% of their monthly income.
Nearly 80% of respondents said they viewed liability from takings cases as a serious financial threat. But the same group said the threat of takings cases should be considered last when weighing a request for additional building allocations, listing quality of life and environmental protection as their top two priorities.
In live surveys conducted during public presentations, respondents listed infrastructure as the Keys’ largest impediment to future growth and factor most influencing their opinion on additional allocations.
Nearly 40% of live survey respondents were in favor of taking enough allocations to cover the Keys’ buildable lots, plus additional workforce or affordable units, while options of no additional units or just enough to cover buildable lots received 21.9% and 21.5%, respectively. More than half of respondents said they would prefer any additional allocations to be split between market rate and affordable or workforce units, and that units should be distributed at a rate that wouldn’t stress the Keys’ infrastructure. Thirty-six percent said units should be given out as slowly as possible simply to prevent takings cases.
Public commenters largely spoke against accepting additional building rights, challenging the threat of takings cases and stating that rapid overdevelopment of the Keys had already caused the decline of a fragile ecosystem and overloaded traffic on U.S. 1.
Commenters also questioned why lots listed as environmentally-sensitive Tier 1 and Tier 2 properties, which already face an uphill battle to obtain building permits, were included in the county’s total of buildable lots, a concern echoed by commissioners Craig Cates and Michelle Lincoln.
County Attorney Bob Shillinger said even with slim chances due to their environmental characteristics, allowing the properties to compete for building rights, rather than prohibiting building outright, should prevent an immediate takings case and reduce liability for those lots.
Commissioners unanimously supported the 220-unit request, as it is already figured into existing 24-hour evacuation models. Though all five acknowledged they weren’t prepared to make a final decision on allocations beyond that number, as numerous public meetings and briefings are still scheduled for the next two months, Cates said he preferred taking the “absolute minimum amount” of additional units to fend off takings cases.
Commissioner David Rice spoke in favor of a “middle-of-the-road” approach to “avoid damage” from takings cases but provide for “a very slow rate of growth … not stop growth.” Lincoln said she would be more in favor of additional units if they could be reserved for year-round permanent residents, a concept Shillinger said staff is still exploring, while Mayor Holly Raschein said the commission needed to settle on a “sweet spot” between property rights and quality-of-life concerns. Commissioner Jim Scholl said he was in favor of continuing to find avenues reducing the number of allocations needed to satisfy takings liabilities, but that quality-of-life concerns may demand more than 220 allocations.
The county’s ultimate request for units will be shaped by the following meetings to close 2024:
Public participation town halls
Monroe County planning and environmental resources staff will provide background information and currently available data related to the Rate of Growth Ordinance (ROGO) and the potential for additional residential units. Residents are invited to speak and provide feedback.
- Monday, Nov. 4, 5:30 p.m. Key West: Harvey Government Center
- Wednesday, Nov. 6, 5:30 p.m. Key Largo: Murray Nelson Government Center
- Thursday, Nov. 7, 5:30 p.m. Marathon Government Center
Online survey
A final online ROGO survey is available by scanning the QR code. The survey is designed to gauge public opinions and ideas concerning planning considerations for the future growth of the Florida Keys, including how many new residential units are preferred and how they ought to be distributed. The survey will remain open until Friday, Nov. 8 at 5 p.m.
QR LINK: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/rogosurvey5
BOCC meetings
- Wednesday, Nov. 20, 10 a.m. at Marathon Government Center: Report public input received at town hall meetings, fifth online survey, and a presentation by Jonathan Rizzo, National Weather Service (special meeting).
- Wednesday, Dec. 11, 9 a.m. at Key Largo Murray Nelson Government Center: Presentation of infrastructure study to determine infrastructure needs depending upon the number of ROGO allocations requested (regular BOCC meeting).
- Thursday, Dec. 19, 10 a.m. at Marathon Government Center: Selection of the number of ROGO allocations to request from the state during the 2025 legislative session (special meeting).
