Emergency management and weather officials stand ready should a storm threaten the Florida Keys. For residents, early preparations and planning should be at the forefront to protect themselves, loved ones and property.
After all, each storm is different. And it only takes one to affect a community.
Thanks to advancements in technology, forecasters are gaining better intel on a storm’s path, when it could make landfall and what area should be bracing for a hit. Today, average track errors in a five-day forecast are far less than a two-day forecast in 1990, said Jon Rizzo, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service Key West.
In addition, hurricane reconnaissance by aircraft into the belly of a developing storm has led to improvements in predicting possibilities for rapid intensification, or an increase in wind speed of at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period.
“This means National Hurricane Center forecasts are actually identifying some tropical storms and hurricanes as being candidates for rapid intensification over the next 24 hours, and explicitly putting that into the official forecast,” Rizzo said.
Forecasts delivered by Rizzo ahead of a threatening storm help Florida Keys emergency management officials in determining what actions, if any, need to be taken for the safety of residents.
“We have to work closely with the National Weather Service to make accurate decisions when it comes to evacuating. When we do say evacuate, we do so knowing we have good information. When we say go, you gotta go,” says Monroe County Emergency Management.
Improved forecasts are not only benefiting emergency management, but they’re also helping residents avoid having to pack their belongings and hit the road needlessly.
“Evacuations here in the Florida Keys have decreased over the years because the accuracy is increasing through the National Weather Service,” said said Shannon Weiner, who formerly served as director for county emergency management. “We have a better understanding of the threats due to technology.”
In 2022, Hurricane Ian skirted 75 miles west of Key West. Despite its proximity to the lower island chain, residents weren’t ordered to evacuate. Hurricanes Milton and Helene in 2024 also tracked west of Key West. Track models from the National Weather Service showed no serious threats to the island chain from the two major storms, leading to no calls for an evacuation.
Residents are urged to visit trusted sources, like nhc.noaa.gov, for weather information during hurricane season. Also, residents should know weather impacts, including wind and storm surge, can occur outside the cone.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, 2025.
