Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.
NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to Nov. 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
The agency is forecasting 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6 to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said Laura Grimm, acting NOAA administrator. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”
Factors influencing NOAA’s predictions
The season is expected to be above normal due to a confluence of factors, including warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear and the potential for higher activity from the West African monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation.
The high activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds. The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption.
This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms.
“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”
Improved analysis, forecasts for 2025
NOAA will improve its forecast communications, decision support and storm recovery efforts this season. These include:
- NOAA’s model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, will undergo an upgrade that is expected to result in another 5% improvement of tracking and intensity forecasts that will help forecasters provide more accurate watches and warnings.
- NOAA’s National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be able to issue tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, giving communities more time to prepare.
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s Global Tropical Hazards Outlook, which provides advance notice of potential tropical cyclone risks, has been extended from two weeks to three weeks, to provide additional time for preparation and response.
